Our time on Hub24 has ended with a #1 ranking over 5 and 10 years of the 264 managed portfolios on their platform.
Poetic justice? Having been spurned by Hub24 from their public investment menu because Aldersley Capital had just one investment manager (me) these past ten years, it’s very satisfying personally to have seen off my time there by achieving a 10.62% return (after investment fees) for the month of February, (despite a late drop in our largest holding Droneshield), and to be ranked #1 over both five (15.75% p.a.) and ten years (13.63% p.a.) according to the Hub24 performance figures.
Considering the tailwinds assisting the global portfolios out there these past ten years, and an inability to use my skills with ETO’s on the platform, it’s been no easy feat. I’ve relied heavily on high conviction stock-picking ideas, sometimes identifying small companies long before they reach profitability or enter the radar of more conservative funds. Hub24 itself was one of those picks.
Identifying the “market timing” opportunity as covid emerged in January 2020 gave a good boost. I confess 2021-2023 were somewhat indifferent years before things started moving in September 2023. A 21.91% gain over September-February was assisted by an unusual combination of tilts towards gold stocks and indirect exposures to the likes of Nvidia via thematic ETFs. Some great runs in A2m, James Hardie, RWC and Droneshield helped too.
In just the past few weeks while we’ve been in transition from Hub24 to Aldersley Capital Direct, Droneshield has run up from 40c to a high of 93c, and then just as dramatically plunged to 59c (by yesterday).
After such a strong runup some sort of correction was inevitable. In another example of the mathematical wonders in nature and behaviour of Fibonacci sequences, the move from 40c to 93c and back to 59c is a full 61.8% Fibonacci retracement!
Fibonacci number patterns abound in nature. They dictate the fingers on your hand (5), the number of petals on simple and complex flowers and the spiral on a seashell. In some mysterious way, these numbers creep into investment behaviours too.
If it follows a typical Fibonacci continuation, Droneshield should have bottomed at 59c yesterday and will rebound towards 80-85c in coming days.
John Aldersley.
